What Do I Know—and What Needs Checking?

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Examine one conclusion, separate its evidence from its assumptions, and choose one useful way to check it.

You have an explanation. Perhaps it arrived immediately. Perhaps you have been polishing it for three weeks.

Either way, there is a useful question:

What is this conclusion resting on?

This short exercise helps you put the answer in writing.

Allow about 15 minutes. Use a notebook or blank document. You can complete the exercise here without registering, downloading anything, or using AI.

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When this is useful

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Try it when:

• You are interpreting someone’s response.

• You are making a career decision with incomplete information.

• Advice sounds convincing, but you have not checked its basis.

• You keep returning to the same conclusion without finding new evidence.

Choose one manageable claim. “My whole career is wrong” is difficult to examine. “I would enjoy this work more in a smaller organization” gives you somewhere to begin.

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Why include an independent check?

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A September 2026 preprint involving 366 participants found that AI-assisted participants performed better on reasoning tasks, while their ability to assess their performance did not improve correspondingly. Average overestimation was similar between groups; the findings do not establish that AI generally causes overconfidence. arxiv.org

FFG’s practical application: write down what supports a conclusion, then identify a check beyond the explanation that produced it.

The study examined AI-assisted reasoning tasks. It did not test this exercise or establish its effectiveness for career decisions.

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Read the original preprint: Confident, Not Wiser — Fernandes and colleagues

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1. Write the conclusion

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Complete this sentence:

My current conclusion is…

Write what you presently think, even if you are uncertain.

For example:

I would enjoy my work more if I became an independent consultant.

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2. Record the supporting evidence

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What have you directly observed, done, read, or been told?

List up to three pieces of evidence. Include their source or circumstances.

What I observed or can verify:
Where this information came from:

Be specific. “Everyone says consulting offers freedom” is difficult to check. “Two consultants told me they choose their clients” identifies the source—and its limits.

Something someone told you is evidence of their account. It does not automatically establish what your experience would be.

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3. Identify the assumptions

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What are you adding to the evidence?

Complete:

For my conclusion to hold, I am assuming…

Look for missing connections:

• Does someone else’s experience apply to my circumstances?

• Am I treating one difficult week as a lasting pattern?

• Have I assumed a different arrangement would remove the problem?

• Am I relying on information I have not verified?

An assumption is a place to investigate. Finding one does not mean your conclusion is wrong.

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4. Consider another explanation

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Write one plausible alternative that could account for the same evidence.

Another explanation could be…

Then ask:

What information would help me distinguish between these explanations?

You do not need ten alternatives. One credible possibility is enough to open the question.

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5. Choose one independent check

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Choose an action that could add information, including information that challenges your conclusion.

You might examine an original document, observe the work, ask someone with direct experience, or run a small practical test.

Complete:

I will check…
By doing…
Before…
A finding that would make me reconsider is…

Asking the same person—or AI system—to repeat an explanation more confidently adds little independent evidence.

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Illustrative example

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This fictional example shows how to complete the exercise.

Current conclusion:
I would enjoy my work more as an independent consultant.

Supporting evidence:
I enjoyed delivering two client workshops. Two independent consultants told me they can choose their clients.

Assumptions:
I could find enough suitable clients. Workshop delivery would occupy most of my time. Independence would reduce the pressures I dislike.

Another explanation:
I may want more workshop work and fewer internal meetings. That might be possible within employment.

Independent check:
By next Wednesday, I will ask two consultants to describe an ordinary working week, including sales, administration, and unpaid preparation. I will also ask my manager whether a role with more workshop delivery is possible.

What would make me reconsider:
If consulting involves substantially more sales work than I want, I will investigate employed roles with more workshop delivery before committing to independence.

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Your written result

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Keep these six lines together:

My current conclusion:
Evidence supporting it:
Assumptions it depends on:
One plausible alternative:
My independent check and date:
What could make me reconsider:

You now have a conclusion you can investigate and update.

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What your result means

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Your evidence may support part of your conclusion while leaving another part unresolved. Record that distinction.

You may also discover that an important question cannot be answered immediately. Identify what would help and whether a smaller, reversible action is possible while you investigate.

The exercise does not require certainty. Its result is a clearer account of what you know and what needs checking.

 

Examine the wider situation

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This exercise focuses on one conclusion.

The Blind Spot — Free Self Check helps you examine the wider situation: name the decision, notice the pressure around it, separate facts from assumptions, consider another perspective, and identify a useful next step.

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Related exercises

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• Identify capabilities your job title doesn’t explain.

• What needs to change: your work, your working conditions, or both?